Investment Banks See Stronger 2025 for Macau Casinos

JP Morgan now projects Macau’s gross gaming revenue to rise 13% in the second half of 2025 from a year earlierImage Source: Shutterstock.com

Macau’s casino industryis experiencing a boost in activity. Several investment banks have raised their revenue and earnings projections after seeing better-than-expected results through mid-2025. Rich Chinese tourists are responsible for this comeback. Their renewed ability to spend has gotten a lift from recent economic and financial changes in the area.

JP Morgan Raises Macau Casino Revenue Outlook to 13% Growth for Second Half of 2025

Financial experts at JP Morganhave boosted their forecast for Macau‘s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the second half of the year. They now expect it to grow by 13%compared to the same time frame in 2024. This marks their third upward adjustment in three months. The revision comes after a 4% rise in the first half of 2025 and back-to-back monthly increases of 19% in June and July, when compared to the previous year. The bank predicts GGR to increase by 12% in Q3 and 16% in Q4. They point to an ongoing surge of momentum that will continue into early 2026.

The uptick has a connection to various economic factors on a larger scale. One such factor is the rise in available cash in Hong Kong. This is clear from the high demand for new stock offerings and a big fall in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate. These changes make it simpler to get Hong Kong dollars, which people use for bets in Macau. Additionally, the Chinese yuan has gone up in valueby about 4% since April. This means mainland visitors can buy more with their money. Gains in the stock markets of China, Hong Kong, and the US, plus increases in cryptocurrency values, have helped improve the mood of gamblers with more money to spend.

Macau’s Gambling Boom Gets a Boost from Policy Changes and Big Spenders

Morgan Stanleycredits some of the recovery to Beijing‘s recent shift in economic policy. This new focus on quality growth might boost profits for business owners, a group that makes up a big part of Macau’s premium mass and VIP customers. Big-name entertainment events have also drawn more visitors. Analysts point out that these events often lead to more spending on both gambling and leisure activities.

The good results have pushed up casino-related stocks. Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and SJM Holdingsall saw big jumps in Hong Kong trading after July’s GGR numbers beat expectations. HSBC Global Researchnoted that demand from high-end customers was stronger and likely to last longer than first thought. This comes from premium players traveling more often and setting aside more money for gambling. Macau’s total GGR for the first seven months of 2025hit MOP 140.9 billion ($17.4 billion), rising 6.5% from last year.

The industry EBITDAlooks set to speed up, from 5% growth in Q2 to an expected 16% in Q4, so analysts think the sector is worth more than its current price even after recent increases. Big investment firms agree that this upward trend is not done yet. They believe the city will gain from both long-term economic shifts and short-term gambling patterns well into next year.