Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez UFC Vegas 109 Odds, Time, and Prediction

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez is the main event of UFC Vegas 109 (a.k.a., UFC on ESPN 72), which will ngake place at the UFC Apex in Vegas, on Saturday, August 9Image Source: Shutterstock.com

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez is a clash between two Top 10 Middleweights with big ambitions. They’re both well-rounded fighters, with Dolidze being an expert grappler, but whose preferred method of victory is KO/TKO. Hernandez, meanwhile, is one of the best strikers in the UFC Middleweight Division, but most of his wins happened by submission.

What all this means is that predicting who’s going to win the UFC Vegas 109 headliner is tricky. Nevertheless, betting odds favor Hernandez heavily. Let’s see if “The Caucasian” can stage an upset on August 9.

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez Odds

Moneyline	Odds
Roman Dolidze	+270
Anthony Hernandez	-330

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When, Where, and How to Watch?

• Place: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada
• Date: Saturday, August 9, 2025
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• How to Watch: ESPN

Can Roman Dolidze Upset the UFC Vegas 109 Odds?

We’re gonna go as far as to say that the 37-year-old Roman Dolidze is in his prime at the moment. “The Caucasian” is 6’3, which is tall for a middleweight, but he’s lean, so he’s under the 185-pound limit.

Keeping his body fat to a low percentage is also the reason why he’s quick on the feet and hard to hit. He did get punched by Marvin Vettori 111 times in his last fight, but it lasted for the full 25 minutes – and “The Italian Dream” is a hell of a striker. What’s even more impressive is that Dolidze landed 30 significant strikes more than him. 

Roman Dolidze is a violent individual no matter where the fight goes.

Weak stomachs beware, this is a nasty finishing sequence 🤮 #UFCVegas109 pic.twitter.com/Kxe4yol99T

— Maestro MMA (@mmamaestro_) August 3, 2025

Before that fight, Dolidze TKO-ed Kevin Holland, and before that, he out-struck Anthony Smith, landing almost 2x significant strikes than him. The Georgian has fought some KO artists over the years, but he’s never got slept. In fact, all three of his losses happened by decision.

His next opponent is a great finisher, with 8 wins by submission. Should this worry Dolidze? Maybe not too much, as he too is a great grappler. While his ngakedown defense is poor (33%), he’s always managed to sneak out from submission attempts.

Reasons Why Anthony Hernandez Is a -330 Favorite

Anthony Hernandez is 14-2-1 overall with seven wins in a row, the last of which happened against Brendan Allen. Most of this guy’s wins happened by submission, but in our eyes, his strongest weapon is striking. 

“Fluffy” lands 4.50 significant strikes a minute, while getting hit just 2.61 times. That’s the third-best striking differential in the UFC Middleweight Division. The best thing is that he didn’t pump those numbers against cans. Instead, he beat up some real tough guys over the last couple of years – Michel Pereira, Edmen Shahbazyan, etc.

He’s got volume, but he doesn’t seem to have the power. At least, we don’t think he’s got the power to knock Dolidze out.

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez Prediction

We think Roman Dolidze can stage an upset on August 9. Sure, Hernandez has such a portfolio that it’s no surprise that odds are in his favor. However, the Georgian fighter is tough as nails and can go to war with him for the full five rounds.

In the last year and a half, we saw Dolidze fight for 25 minutes on two occasions. Meanwhile, Hernandez has never stayed in the UFC Octagon for the full five rounds. The last time he heard the final bell in a 5-rounder was in 2018 in the LFA.

Pick: Roman Dolidze